NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast – Issued: 2014 Dec 20 0030 UTC


:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 20-Dec 22 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 20-Dec 22 2014

            Dec 20     Dec 21     Dec 22
00-03UT        4          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        5 (G1)     2          4     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        3          5 (G1)     3     
15-18UT        2          5 (G1)     2     
18-21UT        3          5 (G1)     2     
21-00UT        3          6 (G2)     3     

Rationale: G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 20 Dec in
response to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 17 Dec.  G1 (minor) to
G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms are possible on 21 Dec in response to
the anticipated arrival of a CME from 18 Dec.  G1 conditions may linger
into 22 Dec.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 20-Dec 22 2014

              Dec 20  Dec 21  Dec 22
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event (S1-Minor) due to the potential for a proton producing solar event
from Regions 2241 or 2242.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 19 2014 0944 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 20-Dec 22 2014

              Dec 20        Dec 21        Dec 22
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels for the next three days (20-22 Dec) from
Regions 2241 and 2242  with a chance for an isolated X-class event
(R3-Strong)

Publicado el diciembre 20, 2014 en El Tiempo, Technical y etiquetado en , , , , , , . Guarda el enlace permanente. Deja un comentario.

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