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How does the fast fall in oil prices impact the maritime industry? – FEBRUARY 2015

IHS Consultant Diana Illing reports from Germany

The fall in oil price has had several impacts on the shipping sector; to understand them one has to look at the nature of transportation. The demand for transportation occurs if goods are shipped around the world. This happens in a globalized world when goods are produced in one part of the world but mainly consumed in another. Transportation ensures the goods are shipped where they are consumed. In the current world, many consumer goods – shipped in containers – are consumed in Europe and the Americas with Asia being the workbench producing many of those goods. Indeed the largest trade routes of container ships are Asia-Europe route and the transpacific routes. When we look at economic indicators predicting economic activity in Europe and the Americas, the picture looks at least stable; this is supported by the low oil prices.

Europe
In the EU, economic recovery will be constrained by high unemployment and weak consumer confidence, but a positive stimulus from lower fuel prices will help to sustain gradual economic recovery. Overall EU GDP growth is forecasted to improve from 1.3% in 2014 to 1.7% in 2015, supported by the European Central Bank’s continued quantitative easing policies and the stimulus from very low oil prices and the markedly weaker Euro. The growth in North America seems to be stable, with an upwards direction – this is supported by all main indices. Lee el resto de esta entrada